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Pastimes : QQQ & DIA - chat & chart
QQQ 608.86+0.1%4:00 PM EST
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To: Chris McConnel who wrote (220)12/5/2001 2:29:54 AM
From: Chris McConnel   of 795
 
ddc.net

Nationalist Traders Log For Dec. 5, 2001

We have another trend turn in the STO for the NDX tonight, which I am going to ignore for several reasons. First, my own discipline will not let me go long the NDX when it is overbought on the weekly STO with the fast line sinking. In addition, the negative volume index is plunging and there is a negative OBV divergence over the past three weeks. Finally, we have had 8 direction changes in the NDX 3 dma (average of HLC) over the past 16 days. The swings are way to short except for those who trade the hourly chart.

That said, I must confess that my original upside objective of NDX 1694 (QQQ 42.35) looks doable, and is the .618 retrace of the decline from May through Sept. It also looks like the institutions have a very big "history trade" here where with a recovery coming, December and January could be up months. I would look for some chop after December expiration, but would not expect any steep decline until after January expiration.

There are other things that are easier to trade. I am waiting to short the bond as soon as the 8 day STO reverses down (up on the yield chart). The bond is volatile as hell but trends well for a number of days following each direction change.

For those of you who would like to buy and hold something for the next 5 months, I would suggest that the XAU and the HUI will double by the end of April.
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