Hi Bill--thanks for the response
>>You must have just come onto this thread...
I have visited the thread from time to time--I began following it more closely after the thread became a HotSubject. I then began using it as something of a contrarian indicator, though I was tempted more than once to offer a different perspective. The magnitude of the activity two days ago--almost all of it negative--was what finally caused me to post yesterday.
>>For example, my call in Feb was June 20th would be the peak in the DOW... has it been exceeded?<<
I did not see your post in February--but to have called the top four months in advance is impressive indeed. How did you pick that date for the top--if you have already answered this question, please direct me to the posting. Now when you ask if it has been exceeded since then the answer is "no", but are you suggesting that it will not be exceeded before the Big K or at least a significant decline?? If the answer is "yes", how much of a decline would you need to see before you feel that another up-leg can resume??
>>We are bearish right now because we believe this is a critical juncture in the markets... or at least I do.<<
Therein lies our difference of opinion. I guess that I don't see the nature of the critical juncture that you refer to--I see a number of positives and negatives. On the positive side, is a favorable interest rate environment, a seemingly unending flow of funds, low inflation, earnings growth, and a positive technical picture for the market--in terms of market momentum and several other indicators. On the negative side are excessive valuations, sentiment indicators that are too optimistic and a very over-bought market; neither of these lists are by any means comprehensive. I often hear this market compared to the 1987 market and the comparison is just not valid. I was active in the markets then and there are several differences--the most significant being that in 1987 we had a very unfavorable interest rate environment. We also have an absence of frothiness--we had that in April/May 1996. Most bull markets see a marked amount of speculation in the third and fourth tier stocks before they come to an end.
I want you to understand that I am not a raging bull--but I just don't believe that we are set to see a major decline. Perhaps part of the problem is one of semantics--and the title of this thread, while attention getting may be misleading. It would not surprise me at all if the market corrected 10%---which would bring the DOW down to 7000 ---now that is to me a normal correction and the market would still be in an up trend. Could you perhaps clarify what you see the down-side as being--in the context of the BigK?
>>Have you looked at the bull/bear survey recently on SI. Just click on home and come back in again... if you track it you will find it forecasts the tech stocks fairly well... and look where it is now and where the tech stocks are going?<<
Interesting that you cite the survey--because I view the numbers as being rather bullish for the market--but then I use it as a contrarian indicator, of sorts. It just goes on to show how two people can look at the same data and come up with two wholly different conclusions.
>>Thanks for the input... I suspect we will become bullish when the proper time arrives OR we/me are/is obviously proven wrong... wouldn't be the first nor last.<<
Well Bill, I too am very aware of how often I have been wrong in the past. Perhaps we all need to be cognizant of Option Jerry's comment in his posting yesterday that one of the greatest mistakes a trader can make is to get too wedded to a particular position as to what the market is going to do -- whether it is being overly bullish or bearish.
Take care
Take care |
