re: Strategy Analytics on Latin America Growth
I never thought much of Strategy Analytics but their view of Central and Latin American (CALA) market growth is below.
EMC forecasted the identical region this way (much more aggressively) based on October 2001 based on their actual figures to end June 2001.
Millions of subs 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Americas 63.6 92.7 132.5 170.6 202.2 226.4
EMC is looking a little too aggressive.
>> Latin American Market Will Top Us$51 Billion In Revenues By 2006
Strategy Analytics
As subscriber growth slows in Europe and shortly the US, conventional wisdom has been to look east for new markets to conquer. However, a new Strategy Analytics report concludes that looking west also opens up new avenues of exploration and growth.
"The Central and Latin American (CALA) market has been growing consistently over recent years. Although the region is not immune from the global slowdown seen elsewhere, and is undergoing its own economic tribulations, there is still significant demand for services with subscribers passing 85M this year" commented Sara Harris, Senior Industry Analyst in the Global Wireless Practice. 3G licensing starts in the CALA region next year, and Strategy Analytics predicts that subscriber numbers will grow to over 164m in 2006, with revenues set to reach $51 billion in that same year.
The Growth Trajectory
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Subscribers(Mil) 86 101 116 134 150 164
MoU / month 89 81 81 79 80 81
$ARPU / month 40 37 35 36 37 37
Prepaid is a huge driving factor in the market accounting for over 50% of users. "The CALA region, like other prepaid dominated markets, is facing strong pressures to improve profitability. Improving economies of scale will become even more critical for operators. Therefore, Strategy Analytics predicts more consolidation of TDMA operators in Brazil and CDMA operators in Mexico in the short term," noted David Kerr, Vice President of the Global Wireless Practice.
- Eric - |
