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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10878)12/5/2001 8:48:54 PM
From: Warpfactor  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
Re: Bull Market definition

thedowtheory.com

<<<<Wall Street, quite unbelievably, has no universally
accepted definition of either, so here goes:

BULL Market: Charles Dow (of Dow-Jones’ The Wall Street
Journal and The Dow Theory fame) defined it as "a broad upward
movement" - I’d say O.K. but a little vague. Ned Davis Research
defines it as "a 30% gain after 50 days…or a 13% rise after 155
days" - now I’d say that’s not too vague, but is a little too much.
My own studies of the stock market in the 20th century show
many fluctuations of 10 or 15% that don’t develop into anything,
but when markets bounce up 19% that is the threshold from which
advances have then risen 95% of the time to over +29%. One-half
have risen over 80%, with the average Bull market gain being
123%, and lasting nearly 3 years (based on the record with the
aberrations of the 1930’s removed). Therefore, I define a Bull
market as one which advances 19% on both the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 over any
timeframe. Economic expansion has followed each such
occasion. Subscribers will find a full report plus graph in the
Special Report: Bull Markets of the 20th-21st Century. >>>>>>>

Edit: If it looks and quacks like a duck . . . . . .
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