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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.580+1.5%Jan 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: Eric L who wrote (17115)12/5/2001 9:28:57 PM
From: slacker711  Read Replies (3) of 34857
 
I think you are playing devil's advocate in this post....

Hypothetically, if Qualcomm had decided to exchange IPR with Ericsson and Nokia, they STILL would have created a W-CDMA standard sufficiently different to require dual-mode handsets. Some of this is due to attempted improvements to CDMA.....but much of it was done to simply deny the rest of Qualcomm's value chain a head start on 3G technology.

If 1x had become the official 3G air interface over a GSM-MAP infrastructure in the middle of '98, you would have seen a dead stop in new orders for GSM infrastructure. Companies would have begun making plans to overlay their existing networks with a CDMA air interface....and who would have gotten the contracts???

Lucent, Motorola, and Nortel.

These were the leading CDMA infrastructure companies that would have been able to leverage their expertise to start winning back marketshare. Instead we have a situation in which Nokia and Ericsson are still the leaders in the core and the air-interface is sufficiently different to nullify LU, MOT, and NT's technical experience with CDMA.

It has worked. Nokia and Ericsson dominate the list of W-CDMA contract wins. They now need to put their money where their mouth is and deliver infrastructure and handsets. The news from NEC that they wont deliver dual-mode handsets until the end of '02 does not bode well for the results.

Slacker
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