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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: jjstingray who wrote (11118)12/6/2001 12:12:18 PM
From: TREND1  Read Replies (3) of 99280
 
jj
you wrote
Larry, why would you say Dec may be the time to sell. Isn't the market telling you we are going up?

answer:
Let me take some time to explain my model.
(1) Bases on what I read in 1969 called the "trend paradox"
part1: The highest probability is that the trend will continue.
part2: Now here is the paradox.It is 100% certain that the current trend will end some time in the future.
(2) So my model calculates the current trend.
(3) If that is up it uses "part1", The probability is that tomorrow will continue up vs turn down.
(4) Let me give you an example:
If you are alive today, the highest probability is that you are going to be alive tomorrow even though you know for certain that one day you will die.
(5) This trend was a baby in Sep, but now is an old man in Dec, so the chances of dying increases each day.

Hope that helps
Larry Dudash
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