re: I am clueless:
Me, too.
As I said, I think the market is now being driven upward by liquidity, momentum, and hope, and there is no good way to predict how far that takes us. I don't know how to even guess the answer to your question, even approximately.
Companies whose 2002 earnings and sales are not going to be better than 2001, are now at PEs of 40, 60, 80, and up. If you don't want to use 2001 or 2002 (trough) numbers in your valuation equations, OK, use 2003 numbers. Plug those guesses into your PE and P/S ratios (and understand those are just guesses). What do you get? Make the most optimistic assumptions that don't involve absurdities, and what do you get? The valuations are still too high.
But every chart I look at, says the market doesn't care, isn't worried, and is going up up up. |
