Peter,
Sorry that I didn't check to see if it was posted on this thread earlier. I had just found it the other day, while researching articles that discuss IMCL, and I thought that even if it was posted earlier, it might be a nice reminder for some biotech investors on how to get earlier information from medical research organizations...
<<On IMCL, the short answer is to look at what BMY paid for their share of the drug. A pharma doesn't lay out in excess of $1b for a drug that hasn't yet been approved without first doing a lot of homework>>
I don't know if the below analyst reads your 'Biotech Valuation' thread or not, but he seems to agree with your "short answer" on why IMCL is $70+ a share: <g>
Thank you,
Shawn
NeoPharm, Inc. (Nasdaq: NEOL) New Report Sees BMY/Imclone Transaction As Bullish
NEW YORK, Dec. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- The recent $2 billion investment by Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) in Imclone Systems (Nasdaq: IMCL) reflects an escalation in Big Pharma interest in (and prices paid for) late-stage cancer compounds. As an industry leader in cancer drug delivery systems with six of its own oncology compounds in human clinical trials, few biopharmaceutical companies have more to gain than NeoPharm.
This is the main conclusion of a research recently published by Melhado Flynn & Associates, Inc. and written by portfolio manager/analyst, D. H. Talbot, who manages a limited partnership that invests mainly in small-cap medical technology stocks. NEOL is one of his largest holdings.
Mr. Talbot has decided to share his research with others because he regards current Wall Street coverage as inadequate. He expects 2002 to be an especially good year for the stronger biotech and related stocks. He further estimates that the NEOL share price will surpass the old high ($39) over the next 12-months, owing mainly to interest in 2 compounds.
1) LEP (liposomal encapsulated paclitaxel). Earlier this year, Street
analysts were estimating that NeoPharm's stake in future LEP earnings
had a present value of roughly $70 per share. Talbot believes LEP
remains on course -- perhaps slightly behind the original time line for
potential FDA approval but well ahead in terms of potential label
indications vis-a-vis BMY's Taxol(R). NEOL's partner, Pharmacia, has
called LEP the biggest oncology drug in its R&D pipeline.
2) IL13-PE38 (a novel "smart bomb" compound for brain cancer). There is
presently no known cure for malignant glioma which is diagnosed in
approximately 17,500 people in the U.S. each year and claims roughly
the same number of lives. NeoPharm recently announced early Phase I/II
efficacy data which remarkably showed, in some cases, a complete
response despite relatively low dosage levels and with only minor
adverse reactions noted. If these results are confirmed in further
trials, Talbot estimates that IL13-PE38 could gain FDA approval by 1Q
of 2003 -- at least a year before LEP.
The report estimates that IL13-PE38 could generate $4.00-5.00 per share in U.S. earnings within 2 years of launch, off of projected domestic sales of $200 million. (The large EPS impact is due in part to the fact that NeoPharm has only 16m shares outstanding). Talbot's projections do not take into account possible use of IL13 for treating renal cell cancer.
With the exception of historical information, the matters discussed in this document include forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Investment performance is subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies beyond the control of Melhado Flynn & Associates, Inc. Any significant change can materially affect future results. Actual results could differ significantly from the forward-looking statements in this document.
This material, and any opinions expressed, are for informational purposes only and constitute neither a prospectus nor a solicitation of orders for the purchase or sale of any security. Health/Vest Advisors, Melhado, Flynn & Associates, Inc. and/or its officers and directors may, at times, have a position in the shares of NeoPharm, Inc.
Melhado Flynn & Associates, Inc. is a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, CRD number 7340.
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SOURCE D. H. Talbot
CO: Melhado Flynn & Associates, Inc.; NeoPharm, Inc.; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Imclone Systems
ST: New York
IN: FIN
SU: RTG
12/04/2001 10:30 EST prnewswire.com |
