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Strategies & Market Trends : Moufassa's Lair

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To: James C. Mc Gowan who wrote (2280)	12/6/2001 8:11:20 PM
From: DebtBomb	Read Replies (1) of 13660

Herb Greenberg amd 12/06/01 4:25 PM ET Careful on the AMD news. Careful on the Intel news. My first reaction was what are the margins going to look like? AMD is telling you they won't be great, considering that the only reasons they're citing for a lower than expected loss are cost cutting and higher revenues! More important is that AMD said NOTHING about the first quarter. NOTHING. Neither did Intel, whose conference call is coming up in a few minutes. Our friend Bill Fleckenstein thinks he knows why: Because the important part of this story, to him, is that Intel and AMD and other component makers are part of the distribution channel sell-in; manufacturers were buying for Chrstimas, post 9/11 concerns and the thoughts that Windows XP would generate demand. A bigger issue will be what the sell through NEXT quarter looks like. To Fleck, "The First quarter will be a black hole." He doesn't think the demand will be there. Just look at Radio Shack, which today talked about much slower than expected PC sales. So much for XP-generated growth. So much for Xmas related growth. So much for 9/11 generated growth. So much for first-quarter growth. All food for though. P.S.: Fleck says he covered his shorts in PCs several weeks ago. Says he's likely to reshort anywhere from tomorrow into next month. Not sure yet

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