Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (11274)	12/6/2001 9:12:48 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) of 99280

Zeev, I think most of us would agree the "Greenspan Put" is a gimmee this time. If we hold tomorrow and we do have a high near the top of the channel on the 11th around 11:00 and 2:00PM, any sell-off may be contained by the bottom of the channel as well as either the bottom or top of the gap-ups Wednesday (1963-1980). I would say if we breach that gap level, your low into Friday is on. If not, we may have a high on Friday on that critical cycle day (as well as a triple top). I'm not real experienced in the normal "January effect" coming right after a pretty critical bear market top. I believe if we have a high on the 14th, we might need to drop no matter what the following week to satisfy Max Pain on Dec. 21. Mish's eyeballs had 39-40 QQQ for Max Pain most recently, and I don't think they've moved beyond 40 since. That's a full 10% correction off a COMPX double top, giving us a possible 1900-1934 for the week of the 21st. With bullish sentiment high and a low volume expected the following week, a ride up again to a lower high would be the outcome that would seem most likely to me. I believe there will be a push by the funds to keep us near round numbers for the end of the year and help their own performances on an annual basis. The tax-loss selling should be minimal, as the SPX would be down 10% and the Nasdaq 10% also. Not too many profits to offset the losses. Portfolio shifting is a given. I guess that I'm trying to find a way to fit January into things right now with a triple top at 2102 possible next week and a decline into March/April a likely event. I'd be interested in any ideas you might have to make such a scenario work with the traditionally strong month of January.

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