Werkinstiff:
<<<Warp: Re: "I don't see a fundamental case for tech personally, so I'm just riding the technicals until they reverse."
Join the party. So, it seems, are most longs on SI. You have got big money on your side for now. But they will leave you high and dry along
with the rest of SI.
Re: "Maybe fundamentals will catch up?"
Sure, with a huge "V" recovery, things will be back to normal in no time <G>. Ain't gonna happen.>>>
First, my port is up nearly 70% since October 1st. I was 100% invested (about 90% tech) at that time. I've now scaled back to 40% invested. In a worst case scenario, the markets reverse direction tomorrow. My stocks drop 30% before I have concrete readings that it is time to sell. I sell with the 30% losses 30%x40% = 12% hit to my port. Not a bad tradeoff for the 70% gain.
Second, do you have a time machine or a crystal ball? You speak with a contrived air of certainty ("Ain't gonna happen", etc.) which sounds more like sour grapes for missing a huge and obvious move.
Thind, with an engineering/MBA background, I spent several largely unsuccessful years trying to make money in the stock market from a fundamental/value oriented perspective. Always buying also rans that sported nice fundamentals, while the CSCO's, PSFT's, ASND's (remember them?) always seemed out of reach. Only when I crossed over to the "dark side" and buying the high PE runners did I start beating the market year after year. There is a need to be part psychologist and play stocks off of herd behavior. I suspect that the "herd" is only now just starting to get sucked in. This style works for me, but everyone has their approach. Most of us on SI who are still alive today after surviving the past 21 months I suspect are successful investors and probably have enough sense to get out when technicals turn over. The people you are referring to:
"But they will leave you high and dry along with the rest of SI. "
Those "investors" are gone , blown out of the market over a year ago.
Warp |
