I think you are wrong in the comparison to late 1999, then we were in the midst of a massive expansion, with a final blow up induced by the y2k fear, now we are at the tail end (maybe tail, maybe not) of a business recession>>>
same difference ZEEV, the 50 dma of cboe put calls beat the 98 low in september, so far the market has acted exactly like the move up from the 98 low and the market is acting similar in the bonds and commodities also.
there have some very powerful eco reports that have turned up lately,
we got a major flush in sept, just get me out at any price kinda flush,
now we might retest that flush, but it may take a year or 2 or 3 like the 98 flush (your 1966-1982 trading range)
one other thing, in sept 00 the crowd was talking up the 1994 redux, now nobody talks about that, but look at the major market indexes (sans naz mania), it could be a sideways bull flag.
the nikkei was 80-100 p/e ratio at it's bull peak, we could very well see the dow see similar exhuberant p/e ratio's at the top,
not just a tech top, but a bull economy top.
b
b |
