Where have the shorters gone?
Now is the time to analyse their results. The big problem with any ST strategy (long or short), is when the pattern changes. As long as a pattern continues, the gains steadily pile up. Then, when the pattern changes, (the support/resistance lines are crossed, the inflection point is passed, etc., whatever pattern the ST trader was counting on), then suddenly you're sitting on big losses. That's been my (painful) personal experience.
It reinforces the need to have a backup plan, to have RedFlags (and act on them; the tendency is to ignore them until too late to keep losses small). Stop-losses, watching the market, sensing the turn. It isn't easy, and I've done it wrong more times than I care to think about. For me, AMAT breaking above 40 was a RedFlag.
Anyway, I am just now beginning to accumulate hedges against long positions, and I'm not doing it using semi-equips, not yet. I'll think about it if AMAT stalls at 50.
My hedges (still small, but I'll add steadily if the market continues going up):
JNPR put LEAPs, bought when JNPR hit 25 on 12/4/01.
CMH, shorted at 16 on 12/7/01. |
