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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 37.32-0.5%1:42 PM EST
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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (151646)12/7/2001 3:51:02 PM
From: Elmer  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
Second quarter is not usually a seasonally high quarter for CPU demand. AMD should not be forecasting that far out. Unless they have a huge advantage in cost in the second quarter (maybe due to more .13u manufacturing), I don't see them making money that quarter.

I think things will continue to get worse for AMD. The reason being that the more I think about this yield problem capacity thing the more it seems that poor binsplits are probably the answer. If AMD's yields were decent Paul's number of 27% could still be correct when counting material someone is willing to buy, plus AMD's claim of capacity constraint could hold water too. The many reports of 70nm channels could account for yield crashes but one confidential source reports that not all Athlons have those dimensions, meaning they are specially handled material and not the norm. Regular material would have larger channels and naturally be slower. With normal distribution, there must be a lot of material that's just too slow to sell. There you have it. Reasonable yields, capacity constraint, only 7.7 million from 2 large fabs, only a 10-20% cost advantage from a die that should offer 50% or more, and still 27% yields out the door. It all fits.

With .13u transistors already needed to reach current speeds AMD will continue to have binsplit problems even on a new process with good yields. P4 will be well up in GHzs and AMD will be dumping more slow parts in the dumpster.

EP
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