OT mobile home industry:
Competitors are CHB, FLE, OH, CAV, PHHM.
The mobile home industry is separate from the regular (site-built) industry: different customers; different industry dynamics.
If you understand what happened with Lucent's vendor financing, then you understand what happened to the mobile home industry. It just happened a couple of years earlier in the MH industry. Same process: when times were good, too many factories were built, too many retail outlets were opened, too much inventory was put in those retail outlets. Worst of all, too-easy credit was given to customers that banks wouldn't lend to. This pumped up sales numbers, for a while. Then, it all collapsed. In the last couple of years, several thousand retail outlets have been closed down, many factories closed down and written off (can't sell them, there are no bids). A huge overhang of repossessed mobile homes is depressing prices for new homes. During this, CMH is the only large MH company that has managed to stay profitable, largely due to a well-managed financing division. OH and FLE are bankruptcy candidates, if this recession isn't over soon.
Thanks, for the Halliburton opinion. I'm watching and doing nothing. If oil gets to 10-12$/B, I'll probably buy OIH (oil services index tracker), rather than trying to pick a specific company. |
