Hi David, <<1% up isn't bad for a long-leveraged-options-clown during a supposed financial collapse....>>
I guessed the same point:0) and made the same point <<if I was all in cash I would have made about 4%>>. I also observe that you have done well relative to what could have happened. A passive 1% is OK, and good even, especially as it gets materially large relative to annual active savings.
<<Had a total of 29 different companies and funds invested in or traded over the year>> sounds about right. I do sympathize with <<Lot more work, but more fun and a very good learning experience>> and concur that you can <<make another 3-4% or so by the end of the month and match the cash rate for the year.>>
<<HIH insurance>> An American friend was the MD for their Philippines P&C Insurance JV, and did work on their Asia expansion plan first, then survival plan next, went down with the ship and is now working in another insurance JV in Shanghai. I am familiar with the HIH story (Enron down-under is right) and was in their HK regional HQ Swiss leader’s office when he made decision over the phone to do a large speculation in Korea Online the year before. They made investments the way I used to accept a beer when a University student, gladly.
On <<Enron>> reference, my English Jewish brother’s son was a metals trader for them in Germany and Shanghai, had asked me many months ago about quitting and then come between the clients and their metal traders, as a consultant. I guided him through the feasibility study, monitored his test marketing, then encouraged him to take the plunge. He quit Enron two weeks before it went down, after collecting on a bonus a decent interval before, and now, instead of the originally planned gentle approach, has landed his complement of clients. Disasters do make for opportunities.
<<Krispy Kreme (short at $US32.5, still short)>> You do like to tempt money fate and incur the wrath of the financial gods, toying with their donuts:0)
<<Plan for 2002 - Looking for the continuation of the current rally for a month or two or so perhaps into the New Year. Using a big array of technical indicators to look for the top. Then I plan to take a big short position to at least hedge my portfolio (after dumping the worst trash) or maybe go net short for probably much of the year as we crash down again.. of course this plan will be updated continuously. Also plan to continuously sell options in a big way....>>
Just a short term guess. Up and up until January 31st, then pssssst into August, progressively accelerating and increasingly more violent as we notice that there is not a corner in sight. Your plan sounds suspiciously like the one I am secretly thinking:0) and so let's collaborate.
I am off to second party of the season.
Chugs, Jay |
