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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: BirdDog who wrote (49383)12/8/2001 1:47:20 PM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
No need to beg. I agree to differ with you entirely on that one.

In the years between 1995 and 2000, 40% of North Americans were connected to the Internet, with half of that occurring in the last 18 months. If there was NO GROWTH for the next 5 years, at that rate we'd have completed the remaining 60% by 2004 and have every pet in the USofA wired in by 2005.

Clearly, the pace was not sustainable. Even if we extrapolate beyond national borders. And the writing was on the wall as early as 1998. Although it was extremely unpopular to pay attention. And distinctly unprofitable.

One of those "it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when" things of indeterminate duration.

Your thesis of causality rests on the supposition that equity prices in the spring of 2000 were normal and healthy. That business was operating at a sustainable pace. And more important, that it could grow (healthily) from there. Without additional spending by an already debt-strapped consumer.

If it makes you feel better to point to Greenspan, then by all means do so. But his job is to keep the fragile banking system from coming apart at the seams from the likes of Enron and LTCM [EDIT: and a variety of other countries]. It is not to make sure that you and every other investor benefits from a successfully marketed and appealingly packaged get-rich-quick strategy.

John.
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