VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (45022)	12/10/2001 11:06:03 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) of 65232

I think this guy is spot on.......what's changed???? Looks like SPX puked up 3 years. :-) From: shoreco Monday, Dec 10, 2001 7:56 PM Respond to of 49033 Putting the charts aside for a minute. About 8 months ago I heard an analyst on CNBC say it takes 6 to 9 months for the rate cuts to take effect. Well that was back in April and all I heard was how we were going to get this turn around in the economy in the 3rd or 4th qtr. Well, here we are in the 4th qtr. and 11 months after that first rate cut all I keep hearing is how we are going to get this turn around in the economy in the 1st or 2nd qtr. Here's the difference between now and 8 months ago. Eight months ago the Fed had a belt load of bullets to shoot and a promise that a recovery was right around the corner. Now we find ourselves low on ammo and nothing more than that same promise from a bunch of YTD under performing Fund Managers and a group of paid by somebody TV analyst...LOL... Here's the wild card. Unemployment is on the rise and even though retail sales have improved dramatically over the last couple weeks, statistics show if they weren't giving the merchandise away then they probably wouldn't be selling so much of it, and to top it off, they're probably front loading most of the sales for the next qtr. or two, and that includes mortgages while people stumble over each other trying to take advantage of the lower interest rates. Now back to the charts, I did notice that widely held stocks are holding up much better than stocks with low floats or anemic earnings. This leads me to believe they are being held up for a reason (did I mention YTD under performing fund managers yet). To go long here is absolute nuts, unless your time frame is an hour or two. When I look over charts from the last 15 years they show plenty of opportunities to board the train without losing a limb. No one should feel like if they don't buy now they won't make any money. That is complete bull chit! and that is how hard working people blow their hard earned money. IMO, We are just creating another bubble and we all know how bubbles end. EOM Shoreco PS In no way am I saying we can't recover, let's just see some proof before we all scream the bottom is in..... PSS Here's a chart of the S&P500 over the last 15 years. Take a look and you'll notice if we're in a new bull market you got plenty of time to get on. stockcharts.com[w,a]macl...

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