Petz,
I have a feeling that the overall computer industry will be bad in Q1, except for the "after Christmas" sales. I expect that there's more chance of turning a profit in Q4 than in Q1, because Intel probably has 200 or 300 more MHz coming online in Q1.
I couldn't agree more. It may be a bit beyond reach to achieve profitability in Q4, but I think AMD will achieve results better than .16 loss, which will mean that for the year, AMD made profit. Another thing that may be part of Q4 results may be some tax adjustments. If it turns out that AMD paid a lot in taxes in Q1, and some of the income has been erased by losses in Q3, so there may be some tax credit.
I don't see how Q1 can improve on Q4. I think flash may start recovering, but I think the potential small improvement in flash will not be enough to offset sequential decline in CPU revenues.
Q2 is just so far in the future that it is hard to make any predictions. There hasn't been any positive indication regarding the status of .13u process, other than CC statements that it is on schedule, whatever that means. The whole .13u process gives me the same impression as the Palomino release, which slipped from January to October, basically 3 quarters.
Lack of .13u demo ad MPF, Comdex and annual analyst conference to me means that it did not exist at the time, which is not a good sign.
One rule I have learned watching this industry for a few years is that there are no positive surprises, only negative surprises. To bank on a positive surprise on .13u in early part of 2002 goes against this rule.
Joe |
