| SemiBull - A reasoned discussion is welcomed by me, although I think we've probably beaten this one to death. I know it's easy to throw out trite statements on the boards, and know one knows who you are. I have a great deal of familiarity with the auto companies and their plans for fuel cell technology. Auto industry margins are thin, which is why UTX made a strategic decision to exit the auto parts biz, but so are aero-engine margins for new products. Only when you get to the spare parts biz do you make decent money, and only then if you've maintained the expertise to make the parts. The challenge with P&W is that their old engines are past the replacement parts peak, and there aren't enough of their newer engines in the field to reach the same kind of peak they had in the past. Advanced engines for the F22, JSF, etc, will be loss-leaders for the next 20 years. I also have some insight into IFC's plans and people. Interestingly UTX incorporated IFC's results under Carrier last I had any direct info. That doesn't mean that they'll consolidate the company under Carrier - that would probably be foolish. UTX aims to have IFC play in a broad spectrum of fuel cell applications, from space-based and mini-sized, to automotive, to home and commercial applience sized, to large industrial. I obviously can't say for sure with 100% accuracy that IFC will be bigger than the rest of UTX, but I can say that when you look at their projections for growth and the future it's something to consider. The surface of the fuel cell biz has just been scratched. My best to you...jbk |
