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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: mishedlo who wrote (12335)12/11/2001 5:57:03 PM
From: Timothy Liu  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
Talking about sheep :)

Here is why I think the market will have a shallow retest in the short term.

These days I keep thinking, what are most people thinking in this market. Is it going up, down, side ways? I wake up one morning and look at myself in the mirror and realizes: I am a J6P myself! I lurk news group and stock site, looking for stock tips and follow people who seems to be 'hot'. I believe I can do better than the market over the long run. I have greed and I have fear too. I am a sheep
that try to become a wolf.

So what do I have my money these days? (BTW I am having a 20-30 year horizon.) My 401k/IRA are 80-90% stock/mutual fund and liquid assets 50% stock/mutual fund. This year is a mixed bag, bad in the beginning but after 9/11 it actually have been pretty good. Bottom fishing was fruitful in some (BORL, ARTG, etc) and bust in others (ATHM, EXDS). But overall an OK year. No need to do tax selling because the first half of the year took care of it.

I don't have time to day trade so most of my trading is position trade. I go long most often and rarely short. Currently I still have some stocks that I have gains on from bottom fishing. But with 50% cash I feel underexposed. I keep telling myself that I should have bought the 'Q's rather than the anemic and 'safe' LU, NT, ORCL which did
pretty good but no fireworks.

At current level I am uncomfortable at buying stocks that have gone up 200-400%. If only they could come down a little ... Can't wait for the 9/11 level to come back at which point I am sure to load up.

With the assumption that there are a lot of people like me, I doubt the market will go that low. I will start dip buying in the 1800s if it does get there. (unless I am so filled with fear at that point. :))

(A couple of days ago I read an article which talks about 2 trillion on the sideline right now.)

My 0.02$
Tim
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