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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: Tradelite who wrote (1166)12/11/2001 10:57:33 PM
From: SpekulatiusRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
Tradelite, I have been watching this thread for quite some time. Certainly the strong price appreciation has waned lately and the number of listing has increased.
I don't have a strong opinion where the RE market is going. However, i think that the decision point will be next year. I see several negative trends that could impact RE near term:
1) Potential of increasing interest rates reduce affordability
2) Worsening of potential buyers credit rating
3) Rapid increase in unemployment

I plan to buy a house near term. Right now, i think the risk reward ratios is unfavorable for buying a house (at least in North CA) because I think there is a risk of a realo estate meltdown, caused by the recession.
And, since you speak about next years spring season. you are of course right that prices appreciate normally during the first month - however I am not sure if this will be a normal season.
And: lots of people looking for homes also means lots of people selling homes, so this may be a wash. I also don't think that there will be many corporate relocations, since the job market has grinded to a halt and people who have a job don't tend to hop around that much any more. I guess we will see by summer next year...
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