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To: russwinter who wrote (847)12/12/2001 1:59:18 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (3) of 39344
 
i didn't mean to accuse you as such...and it is true that there is a big disparity in incomes (a high GINI co-efficient) in SA. note however that there is a global trend toward widening income gaps between the lower and higher income strata. that's a side effect of the Kondratyev autumn that has ended in '98. capital's share of output and income rises strongly during this phase, and it is to be expected that in the NEXT few decades this trend will reverse globally, as it has done in past K-winters and reflationary springs.

the potential for civil unrest, revolution and such in SA is however smaller now than at any time over the past 50 years imo. the integration of the black majority that was deprived under the apartheid regime into the economic mainstream is proceeding apace. in fact, things are going surprisingly well. note that SA has the most literate and generally best educated workforce of the entire Sub- Saharan region, as well as the best infrastructure , the most sophisticated financial markets (SA's financial markets are first world standard), the biggest manufacturing base, in short the best preconditions to NOT end up as the typical African basket case. i for one am convinced that SA will be the engine that eventually pulls ALL of Southern Africa out of its funk.

this is not meant to belittle the many problems the country obviously faces. however, the problems seem small compared to those of say only ten years ago. i remember that back then, the doomsayers insisted that SA would fall apart in a bloody civil war like so many other African countries have done. the actual outcome 10 years later so far exceeds even the most optimistic expectations voiced at the time.
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