Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: advocatedevil who wrote (57240)	12/12/2001 2:11:23 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 70976

AD, Looking at bigcharts.marketwatch.com here are my thoughts from a channel perspective. We are still well within the uptrend which began in the beginning of October at 27. The channel has about a $4 range from peak to trough which has tended to take about 4 trading sessions to complete. This particular trip from the top of the channel to the bottom is more sluggish than previous moves. I had been expecting a quick trip to the bottom end of the channel at about 41.5 to be completed by now, but the longer this is drawn out, the more likely it appears that we could complete the bottom of the channel move through time change instead of price change. At this point I am not looking for the price to go below 42 for this move. I expect this to happen by tomorrow. From a trading strategy perspective, I think the preferred way to play this move would be to wait for an opportunity to buy at about 42 since the trend is upward. IMO the only reason to play it from the dark side would be if either (1) I had strong reason to believe the uptrend would soon be broken; or (2) the reactive (negative) swings tended to be substantially quicker (hence more profitable per time unit) than the positive swings. The best way would be to stay agnostic and alternate between being long and short as we approach the lower and upper end of the channel respectively. However this approach aparently tends to cause most traders, who prefer the comfort of remaining with a bullish or bearish mindset for more than a few days at a time, a little too much cognitive dissonance. Would appreciate your comments, thoughts. Sam

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