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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (5243)12/12/2001 6:25:53 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
George,

<<I am not a bearish as you>> well, as i've often said, it's hard to outgrim me. :)

but i am of course nothing if not flexible when it comes to the market. should i see good reason to alter my stance i will certainly do so. i agree that late day strength is generally a positive for the market. the famous Barron's "smart money indicator" is modelled on comparing the action of the first and last half hours of trading every day, and it has been an excellent longer term market predictor in the past. i fear however that the extent of the economy's troubles has not yet entered the 'market mind' if you will. this is due to years of conditioning, in which the notion of the "Greenspan put" has become accepted by market participants as a sort of inviolable guarantee underneath the market.
however, this remains the most overvalued market of all time, as earnings have collapsed even faster than stock prices. my bet is that even the eventual recovery will be far less pronounced than is now generally hoped for. we won't get away that easily after the biggest asset bubble in human history - as Schumpeter said about the early 30's: "people generally stood their ground, but then the ground they were standing on itself began to shift".
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