Look Rob, here's the deal.......Is Jordan being an endorser a bad thing, of course not. But that has little or nothing to do with where the stock price is going. He has been an endorser for a couple of years, but that didn't stop the stock from going from 27.00 to 8.50. So why do you think he would have an affect on the stock now, when he didn't then.
Let me tell you what TA can do that nothing else can. It can give you real facts on how a stock is doing.
You look at the posts on this board, and compare them to the news releases from Oakley. When the stock began to take big hits, there were twenty different explainations as to why it did. Do you know that the day that Oakley came out with earnings of 22 cents, which was adjusted for the spilt, AND beat analysts estimates, the stock took a major hit?
Rumors were rampant as to why, BUT NOT ONE PERSON GOT IT RIGHT. It wasn't until later that the problems with Sunglass Hut came out. Now there is no way, unless you are an insider at OO, that you would have any idea of the troubles that were to follow that positive earnings announcement. All the fundamental data was still great. One week before the stock started to tank, Ophenheimer & Co's analyst on Oakley gave a target of 60 dollars a share (pre-split adjusted). Don;t believe, go back and check the news wire. Earnings estimates didn't change until after the Sunglass Hut stuff came out. So what in the world could you have used to avoid the fall to 8.50 that was to come.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!!!!!!
Because TA doesn't care why the stock is moving the way it is, because....
1. It doesn't matter. If you are losing money, you are losing money.
2. There is no way to know why it moving the way it is.
3. 99% of all the info you get is crap.
Look at what we've seen in just the last two weeks on this board.
Nike Buyout, Jordan endorsing, Bolle' doing something, etc.....
None of those things are correct, and I don't know what is correct, but I don't care. I don;t want to marry a stock. I'm not in love with it. I just want to make money.
Too many people out there fall in love with a story, or a stock, or an idea, and forget that they are losing money.
That is why they don't like TA, because it doesn't let them off the hook.
It says, YOU ARE LOSING MONEY, GET OUT. But they don't want to, because it hurts to lose money, so they look at the fundamentals and the stories, and they rationalize staying.....
"Well, the stock is tanking, but an analyst says its going to 30, and they just had record earnings, and Jordan endorses them, I'm staying in......."
And the stock continues down, and they lose more money...
Technical Analysis is SCREAMING to leave, but they say.....
"well, I'll just wait til it gets back to 18.00 and then I'll get out, they have great gross margins and I saw a new ad campaign with Rodman in it....."
And the stock continues to tank.....18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8.50.......
And all the while they wish the stock back up, and finally they give up, after they have gone through the worst, and they sell.
JUST WHEN TA IS SAYING, START BUYING.
That is why Jordan, and every other story means nothing to me. I like Oakley, because I wear their glasses, but as a vehicle for my money, they are just another stock symbol. I don't care what they do, what the story is, or even what the name of the company is. I just care if they make me money. If they don't I got no love for them.
Everyone calls TA vodoo and crap, they cite Buffet and Lynch, and act like they could invest like them, and fancy themselves "in the know". They think that they can subscribe to a newsletter, or paper, or service or Web site, and get "inside info" to invest on. They take tips from the Internet and from friends, and they think that the Internet is the "key" to their success. If they find the right on-line broker, or service, or web page, they can find the info to be profitable, and yet, the whole time, the key is staring at them in the mirror.
We are our own worst enemy in making money on stocks. We follow our emotions, our psychology, and our gut "hunches." We buy when we should sell, sell when we should buy, because we have no plan, no rhyme or reason. That is what TA does for us.
It takes all that crap, and boils it down to objective facts, and then it is up to you to have the courage to listen to the facts. Do all TA'ers do that, no, and a lot lose money. But if you are going to make money in stocks, you have to know when to buy and sell, and why you are doing it, and TA is the best tool to learn that. Everything else is just noise.
BCL |
