Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (57325)	12/13/2001 8:31:26 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Reasonable b/e estimates as in you expected higher or lower? I arrived at those figures the same way the AMAT analyst arrived at $1.1 Billion. I guessed a lot. Now if I only could get paid a few hundred thousand for being a professional guesser. Actually, I loosely reviewed the Gross Margins that each company had achieved in the last quarterly report. Compared that number to last full year Gross Margin or whatever historical numbers were in the last quarterly report. As expected found that Gross Margins had and were contracting as Sales fell. But the contraction had slowed in most cases and didn't change much from the previous quarter. Made a judgement based on all the companies cost saving measures. Theorized that Gross Margins were close to reaching a bottom and theorized that cost savings measures would offset any further 10% to 15% decline in sales. From there. Deducted last quarters SGA expense, R&D expense, Interest expense (if any), etc. to arrive at the gross margin needed to cover these expenses. Then determined (calculated guesstimate) the level of Sales at my assumed Gross Margin % that was required to cover these expenses.

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