OK, let us try some translation here:
Current scenario: Still has a decline into late December, target still in the 1628/50 area as the low late in December. We may not get that low and the decline may stop at the 1793 area (we'll know soon enough). If we get to the 1793 area, the "to da moon" scenario (just under 3000 on the Naxz before the end of the third quarter) is alive and well. There is a small fork here, if we get to the lower part of the range, then I have a rally from there of 300/400 Naz points by the end of the first week of February (or an extremely strong January), if we stop at the 1793 or so area, the January rally, should be more subdued (to about 2123, which is still higher then the first fork). In both cases, starting late in March/early April, we have an almost uninterrupted march up to the 2800/2900 Naz area by early October.
If we don't get that deeper correction (namely if we stop this decline in the 1850 or so area), we still end January above this month's high (probably in the 2123/2160 area), but start a series of bumps up and down (late February/early March low around 1934, then a rise to the 2250 area into mid April, another retreat and then a peak into 2388 in early July, and from there, we enter a bad mini bear phase, possible target of 1400 again by October next year.)
I have no "model for what happens next if the december decline stops between 1793 and 1850 (g).
Now, remember, these are just "scenarios" or at best, potential "road maps", the market has a good way of doing the opposite, and things may change quite drastically.
Zeev |
