Milo,
What makes you think they can deliver volume? P4 above 1.5Ghz ia limited and 2.0Ghz is non-existent.
Q1 demand will most likely be lower than Q4, which alone could bring supply and demand for P4 into balance. But Intel can maintain their existing .18u production and suplement it with new .13u production of Northwood.
Northwood will get all the premium $$$ Intel needs ($300 and up chips) while the prices of 2 GHz and below will be cut to $200 and below, or even $150 and below. So suddenly, Athlon prices will be (from highest speed grade to lowest: $140, $119, $107, rather than the current pricing of $250, $185, $140. The unit volume of chips overall will go down, and even if relative market share does not change, AMD will be facing lower ASPs and lower units, resulting in poor Q1 results.
What would change these prospects if .13u came on-time in Q1, including desktop, early enough to make a contribution. Chances of this are slim. The best we can hope for is some mobile chips late in Q1, desktops in mid Q2.
Joe |
