RE: "How do you interpret all the analyst calls last week and this, that we've reached a bottom in IC manufacture? I teach technical courses in that industry, and I'm not so sure."
Mitch, Sorry for the delayed response to your question.
I believe we have indeed reached a bottom in IC manufacturing, however I'm not convinced the direction going forward has to be up. I'm in the camp that thinks we'll bounce along the bottom over the near-term. It seems to me there's currently too much focus on seasonal positives and not enough consideration for what's to be expected in the first half of '02. Beyond that is just a guess.
We could debate Intel's guidance, DRAM ASPs, COM chip excesses, foundry utilization rates, etc., but I think it all comes down to macro economic factors. I focus on jobs and debt, and I believe both continue to be major unresolved issues. For example - look at the last couple days of layoff news: Aetna 6,000 16% Qwest 7,000 11% American Express 5,500 6% Applied Materials 1,700 10% Kroger 1,500 1%. Look at Enron, Argentina, Japan's banking system, consumer credit, etc. We have a long way to go IMO.
AdvocateDevil |
