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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.88

-1.0%

Jan 14 3:59 PM EST

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To: advocatedevil who wrote (57462)	12/14/2001 8:04:23 AM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Thanks, AD. That's pretty much in line with my views as well. It's nice for somebody to say the bleeding has stopped, but of course that doesn't mean that the patient can get up from the ICU bed and go back to work. I think we'll see several false starts upwards in ICs, with disappointments when they retreat. Lots of uncertainty about whether or not we're actually on bottom, in fact. Enough so that I think we're not on bottom for the semi equips; Intel cutting its capital expenditures by half is one sign in favor of that view. Macro economic trends in early '02 will give us some clearer signs, yes. One thing to watch out for in all industry is the effect of all the money being pumped into the system to jump-start things; from lower interest rates (a form of money) to increases in the money supply, to increased Federal spending, etc. The "friction" to recovery is being removed. Now all we need is some solid demand for goods and services, and we're off. (Man, this economic prediction stuff is easy! Maybe I should have studied something besides chemistry.) Mitch

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