High Tolerance Plasticity Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: jim_p who wrote (11089)	12/14/2001 1:38:40 PM
From: Winkman777	Read Replies (1) of 23153

Calpine opine. Jim, I have a different opinion about CPN at this point (13+). I've been buying some and selling puts (10's and 15's). IMO CPN is at or near the end of the bad news. They are not that much like ENE, since they trade essentially only their assets. They trade to optimize the spark spread. And seem to lock in NG and MW together for each project. They can renegotiate the CA DWR contracts and come out a winner. They can undo and redo NG and MW for future contracts and still come out with about the same spark spread (profit). CA will probably pay for this with more upfront money and/or cheap financing for CPN projects. It can be win-win for both CA and CPN. About 65% of CPN MW (and NG) is hedged. They are the low cost (newest and most efficient plants) and cleanest (NG and geothermal) generator. Yes we are in a Recession of unknown magnitude and length. But CPN can significantly out compete Utes with older, less efficient turbines. I think that they will limit or at least stretch out their expansion. This is what S&P says they have to do to get a bump to the lowest investment level rating for their bonds. Expect them to buy back more of the April putable converts at a discount. There's a lot more good info on the SI Calpine board (see Clement) .http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=38923 Since I am down about 25% from my all time high of last May, I may not be the sharpest knife in this drawer. All my VHO. Take care and good luck all. Winkman

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next