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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: John Madarasz who wrote (22349)	12/14/2001 2:41:35 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (4) of 209892

if i may...i think the dollar index has a good chance for a waterfall wave 3 decline here. important short term support got taken out today, decisively. the wave 1 down from the July top was clearly a 5 wave impulsive drop. and the rally from the September low looks clearly corrective (wave 2). at the July top, market vane bullish consensus on the dollar index was around 80% if i remember correctly. furthermore, on the sentiment front, your expectation of one more new high is widely shared...Prechter, Saville, to name two of the more prominent gurus for instance predict exactly the same. i for one believe that the entire bull market from the mid 90's lows was a corrective wave...and the bear market that began in '85 is about to resume. have to add though that currency trends are clearly the most inert trends...so i'm not saying that i would rule the 'one more new high' scenario completely out. i just don't think it has a high probability.

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