AHP is cash beneficiary, Imnx ends misery, Amgen buys time!
1. AHP gets most of the cash (45% of $2.6 billion cash part of deal, 80% stock)
2. AHP keeps tons of new shares to sell for the foreseable future depressing the New Amgen shares.
3. Amgen Aranesp is not the real substitute to Epogen/Procrit, cause they work the same except for dosing schedule (Aranesp advantage) and the insurers will send many patients to the cheaper drugs, and they will be even cheaper when TKTX brings their version out.
4. Epogen court win is good for next few years, then TKTX and others will inetably come.
5. Embrel IS the solution for Amgen, a drug selling everything Imnx could produce, more indications are coming, more than a decade of patent protection still ahead, and very good plants are being built.
6. Amgen knows that Kineret will not take significant market share out of Embrel, if it were like that they would not buy Imnx.
7. Imnx G-Csf is a distant second to Amgen's Neupogen (GM-Csf).
8. Amgen divested interferon, got rid of Praecis deal, got rid of neuroimmunofilins deal (Guilford?), they plain clean the house for the new Embrel.
9. Amgen gets Imnx Cancer research for free
10. Amgen pipeline is poor shape and delays are common.
11. Imnx $1.6B? is part of the goodies for Amgen, so they are only paying $2.6 minus $1.6 billion = just $1 billion in cash.
12. Imnx board, insiders, scientist with shares, and long term holders cash out and keep some shares of the new entity.
13. Imnx ends its miseries, the "new Amgen" stock will go in stagnation for several years. |
