Hi Jay, Some posts from parties past … 2000 Christmas season ...
Message 14960876
“As much as I would like to get back on the go-go boat to Maui, I do not think that a headache caused by a long and fun party can dissipate so quickly ... where are the margin call panics, bankruptcies, bad loans, frauds, arrests, law suits, layoffs, week after rotten week of bad cover stories, acrimonious political debates, the rush for generic branded groceries, the sharp fall off of consumer durable sales and the lament of new college graduates happy to find any work. Have we really traveled so far beyond the world obeying the dictates of business cycles.
The sun rose on the horizon momentarily, and now the sky is overcast. When the sky clears again, consider going home with some hot cocoa and a good book in hand.
Before it is all over, you and I will be chatting about the next exciting issues of bonds from SUNW and CSCO yielding 14%, and about import competition for these same businesses as they mature to standardized plug and play components and generic software, ala GSM or CDMA.
Being afraid is the first measure to remain alive in the Arena. I think hiding under the staircase with your machine cannon pointed at the entrance is an acceptable strategy.
Be very careful.
In the washout, picking cheap but good infrastructure owning companies can yield cashflow for years and years as we idle away the time playing Unreal Tournament in the beach cabana.”
Message 14980719
“Hi Merry, Things in cyber Hong Kong are pretty dark, and getting darker. Some fund offices (i.e. Draper's #1 guy in HK just quit, to join an investment bank doing traditional things) are closing, some funds are returning $ to investors, other funds are not able to raise new and badly money; basically all investment operations, including the largest ones (PCCW, etc) are nursing toxic wounds or waiting to die.
Many investee companies are announcing their deathbed preparations or severe (potentially fatal) amputations.
There will be survivors, not many, who will dominate the landscape, but now it is all a crap throw.
I am watching my pals being put out on the streets, resumes in hand, all telling the exact same story ... "how I got dotbombed". My pal who hosted last year's Japanese Restaurant catered party at his home for new year's has not made any preparations to do any celebration. He also has his resume in hand.
I am, as usual, OK, being swift of foot ... run, run, and run still faster, into the darkness, into the forest, away from the thermal nuclear detonation impact and aftershock.
The dotcom side of my business has vaporized and I am once again concentrating on power stations, manufacturing plants, insurance companies. The financial impact is small as dotcom was never of consequence on cash flow. The impact on time is large, as dotcom had taken much of my spare time given the fun factor. The reduction in fun is major, and so I watch the dotcom world gently slip below the waves, with romantic regret. Onward to other matters at hand and not look back, just as I left the Philippines islands to return to my HK business back in 91 (Gulf War trashed my real estate renovation effort).
My wife has shuttered her TMT private equity investment business and is off and running on organizing a classic music festival for 2001. All her cyber enabled Harvard cohorts in Hong Kong are looking for an out of their respective cyber prisons. Main grumble during our group hikes through the beautiful HK country side "gad, it sure takes a long time to shut down these companies". Time better spent on searching for jobs.
My portfolio has been replenished to December 1999 level by income from active work and by some trades (Philip Morris, Conseco) and place on a heap of very dry but boring cash. I still do some Yahoo trades just to keep in practice, but nothing of consequence should events not go my way. Added more to platinum and gold positions.
I believe HK will get darker still. When does it get the darkest in HK? Right before it gets pitch black in the US. As ususal, I wish for a post Xmas/New Year frenzied rise of the NASDAQ. I am not positioned to benefit from the rise, but plan on selling my mom's portfolio at some frenzied point, and also plan to go short just when events look the brightest for Amazon. Never shorted shares directly yet. May simply sell naked LEAP Calls or more conservatively, buy LEAP Puts.
Be careful. Chugs, Jay”
Message 14985220
“My wife and I went to a party last night. I was busy doing work all day and had not thought about the event until it was time to go. When I thought about it, I realized that we did not have too many parties to go to this year. In fact, we have about 80% less parties to go to. It is as if a neutron bomb went off and all the people disappeared.
Last week I was at a party organized by my wife's Women in Media Club. Many of the CNN Asia, CNBC Asia, and Star TV women folks were there, along with script writers, producers, directors. The women to men ratio was about 3:1. There were some real exotic types ... German Chinese, Napalese, Indian Portuguese, etc etc. Noticed that the biggest conversation killer was the sentence "meet my wife". There was no talk of the market or dotanything at the party, as if the revolution never happened.
Last night's party was also unusual. My wife commented that my partner's party was not her favorites as there are too many people who flirt there. As I had not thought about the party for the whole day until arrival time, I started to look forward to the break. Alas, the conversation between the CEO of a large system integration house and I went something like this "who is that lady in white?" "oh, that's David's wife" "and how about the one in red?" "that's my new wife". By the time we were properly sauced, we finally figured out that there were no single girls there at all, unlike my partner's parties of ten years ago when he and I were both single and he first met his current wife who worked in the hotel trade. Still refusing to talk dotcom and slashnet, we proceeded to flirt with the women folks. I guess they were nostalgic for a time past as well.
I guess no one talked dotslashnetcom because there was very little to say about it.”
And finally, a description of the kind of parties I like …
Message 16074891
“I look on the horizon, from Europe to US to Japan to my immediate neighborhood, and then to South Africa, Turkey and Argentina, from bonds to real estate to equity, from high-tech to Old Ec sectors, from Philip Morris, to American Water, to Enron.
I am looking frantically, day and night, and I see no compelling value yet.
On the news service and women ...
womeninmedia.com
... this site (soft launch next Friday, hopefully) was registered by me on behalf of a bunch of ladies that enable me to be quite popular with the boys, especially right before the Chrismas party season and summer boating/hiking season, all looking for an invite to the girls' functions.
The girls' hiking shorts this season start at a few inches below the belly button, in a Lara Croft motif.
Alas, as noted once before, the biggest conversation killer at these outings is "oh, and meet my wife".
Message 14985220
I just attended a premier of Final Fantasy movie by Sony Columbia Tristar, and the ladies were out in force, mind searing experience where my eyeballs were on gyro-free state, able to roll independently of each other and of the skull case.
I learnt of this industry late:0)
But, more seriously, these intelligent, educated ladies can sense a BS-er from a mile away and thus the best approach for the lone single guy is the upfront approach: state your business, and your terms, and hope for the best; and never try to date two of them at the same time (one moronic friend of mine tried).
For the pals of mine who failed at these gatherings, I invite them to my business partner's wife's gathering. She is an airline person, and still maintains her friendships in her previous hotel management trade. Less discriminating but no less fun crowd.” |
