RE DAM SPOT,
Things will change, no certain timing on Red Spot, but things will change to the colder side soon. Not my forecast area, but that's my read.
Spent quite a few hours going over climatic data last 35 years, but some very aggravating gaps in online records for some important years. Had to dig out my own hard copies but that does me no good for Alberta or Montana, for example.
In my forecast area, PA, MidAtlantic/NorthEast, things are setting up nicely. We have a nicely negative NAO, which equals cold weather blocking for East Coast. However, due to Jet Stream and some ridges, we have little cold weather to block and the Canadian air is not as cold as normal (Dam Spot, ggg). Jet Stream is due to change right on schedule for Dec 19 and a new pattern will start. A sudden cold blast is quite likely over the next few weeks.
Forecast remains in place for colder weather to commence around Holidays (12-19 thru 12-28 period) and for Jan Feb to be cold to very cold, relative to normal as always. Good chance cold weather will extend well into March.
Need developing ENSO data over next month or so and additional natural observations to be more specific on break to warm weather timing in the spring. Drawn out cold winter (second half) a good possibility so far.
ENSO rather neutral with a likely El Nino developing over next 3-6 months, this is again supportive of forecast from months ago.
Can't say for sure about a White Christmas my area, but would sure surprise people here who have been putting up their Christmas lights in Tee Shirts a couple weeks ago and for heaven sakes saw people Christmas shopping in shorts same time frame. So the contrarian in me finds such a forecast very tempting, but will not make that as I have no data for it, just the above time frame. My own indicators are focused more on temperature this year, snow not as clear.
Not quite sure what it is with the younger folks, fashion these days I guess, the teenagers don't seem to want to wear a coat even in cooler weather. Parents might want to insist they keep one in the car and have winter emergency supplies in vehicle at least, lest they get frostbit in January February.
Best Regards,
Roebear |
