Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 258.45

-0.6%

10:19 AM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (57612)	12/16/2001 8:22:13 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Jacob, I will have to take another look at that book. An interesting theory. Discontinuous innovation is to be expected in technology, however. In theory I guess a great management team will adapt, but history has shown that most big companies have trouble adapting. AMAT probably doesn't have to worry for at least a while, there is no replacement for semiconductors on the horizon. Moore's law could break down though in 5-10 years, which would probably have a negative effect on equipment sales. This has been suggested of course for a long time and so far they have always been wrong. Another problem for tech companies is when their product becomes a commodity. In semis, the advancement is so swift this does not seem to be an issue in most cases. I am wondering if Corning though is going to have a problem with this. I posted some thoughts over on the GLW thread on this but got no responses. Not an active thread there. That stock looks cheap (assuming orders rebound again) but valuation analysis in technology is a very tricky thing indeed. I wish I understood that technology better. It seems that glass fiber does not improve enough with time to make the old fibers really obsolete, or else I am missing something. That could have been just a one time jump in sales for that company during 98-2000. At least I am not alone in my lack of understanding, the pros were fooled as well in that space ("strong buy" over 10 times higher in price). Congratulations on the JNPR short. John

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