next big thing sectors for 2002-03, ideas welcome
economists historically wrong 2/3 of time
any student of following these hacks can tell you that
they live and die with rearview mirror forecasts
"last year was bad" therefore "this year will be bad"
only 1/3 of them predicted a Y2K boom
only 1/10 of them predicted a post-Y2K bust
very politically influenced, conservative, bad statisticians
next big sectors will be imho:
1. oil/gas
2. security (facilities, computers, internet txactions)
3. biotech (cancer, aids, herpes, blood)
4. fuelcell (cars & busses, building generators)
why?
1. start of new economic cycle expansion, unstable supply from Arab world, demand overwhelming supply trend, China in real development stage, fuelcells not quite ready on large scale
2. terrorism and crime, expansion of internet commerce
3. threshhold of breakthroughs left & right, big cures coming, FDA approval on verge after long test times
4. backlog orders for busses, Calif legislation, unstable oil world, desire to sidestep Arabs entirely, need for clean emissions
other opinions encouraged
notably, mainstream technology I have omitted
way too much competition, too much debt load, too much inventory
of course, plenty of niche exceptions
looking for mainline "next new thing" sectors
/ jim |
