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Pastimes : Ask da_cheif
MVIS 0.810-4.7%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST
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To: Moominoid who wrote (7538)12/17/2001 3:40:31 PM
From: da_cheif™  Read Replies (2) of 8150
 
Letters to the editors of Barrons from James Stack...

We truly regret missing this advance that started last December,and we apologize for making what may turn out to
be one of our worst mistakes. Our reputation and track record weren't earned by sitting out profitable advances.
{But} we are allarmed at the psychological extremes in today's market. Seldom, except perhaps in mid 1987, can
we remember such brazen confidence among bullish advisors. Confidence that the Fed has everthing under
control. Confidence that even though stocks may be expensive and overextended, the downside risk is negligible.
The conviction that stocks can only go up is perhaps most conspicuous in those investors with high cash who view
this rally not as a missed opportunity, but as actual lost capital. It's almost to the extreme that admitting holding
cash is tantamount to admitting that one has a social disease. In short, the psychology today is 180 degrees out_of
_phase with 1991, when this bull market was in its infancy....We want to be particularly careful not to turn a small
mistake into a major one. And the last thing we wish to do is become one of the statistics whent the mania music
stops and overzealous herds head for the exit....JAMES B STACK....
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