MACD on the daily NDX is a bit muddy right now, IMO, jj. It is also a lagging indicator, so it could be reflecting the weakness from the end of last week.
The falling resistance line on the daily runs right through the 1640 area, which is where the NDX closed today. Other indicators are mixed right now, but an upward breach of this falling resistance line would set up the underside of the NDX channel from the Sept. 27 low as upper resistance. This channel seems to intersect the 1670-1680 range tomorrow from what I can see, with 1680 being towards the end of the day.
The 200-day SMA is at 1629, and the 20-day EMA is at 1612.
There is still room on the downside near term, IMO. However, we could get as high as 1669 NDX possibly before this push is done with. Options expiration later this week has as much to do with my puts as the indicators. Max pain is 39-40 QQQ, which is 1560-1600 NDX.
Looking at the 60-minute, the falling resistance line from the 1734 high through the Dec. 11 high intersects today's close. This line is dropping, and was one of the reasons I initiated my puts today at about 2:10PM. I thought we'd drop later in the day due to this line. If this line is breached, the daily line is the next resistance.
That's why I've chosen NDX 1660 for my overhead stop on my puts. It is close enough to my original entry to minimize any losses, but far enough from the falling 60-minute trendline to indicate short term trend break. It also gives me a chance to see if today's rising wedge on the 60-minute breaks to the norm (down). It also gives me a chance to re-enter at a higher level to ride a trend down.
Anyway, sorry for the rambling thoughts. |
