Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 262.30

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10:38 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (57660)	12/17/2001 7:52:46 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) of 70976

That description smacks strongly of a cardinal investing sin ... using past performance EXCLUSIVELY to predict future results. I was a bit boggled by the choice of 152 trading days, until I surmised that the number represented a half-year, weekends and holidays excluded. (365 - ~(2*52) weekend days - ~10 holidays ~= 251 trading days per year, +/- a few ... nope! that doesn't work, either.) Okay, I wonder why the magic number is 152? Highest correlation to past performance? Quibbles aside, I agree with the conclusion. But, I'd prefer it to be a bit more solid than linear regression and a weak confidence interval. As it is, it's less reliable than a weather forecast for a year from today ... weird, unpredictable stuff happens. Tweaking the assumptions just produces wishful GIGO, as far as I can tell. - Mitch

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