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To: GST who wrote (135927)12/18/2001 4:47:53 AM
From: Paul Merriwether  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
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Paul: When I was in China I was approached by black market money traders offering me LESS than the market rate for my dollars -- this is unheard of in so-called "emerging" economies. The direction of the RMB in relation to the dollar is "up" and the dealers are already pricing it into the street market.
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Yeah, I heard of that too, recently! However, China can't officially devalue RMB without the rest of Asia crying bloody murder!
I think China story will be very interesting in the next few years--a lot of upside potential, but if things don't go quite right I hate to think of the consequences(massive social unrest etc.). Shanghai's getting glitzier, while Henan and Sichuan are not keeping up. Its easier to stomach your poverty, if everyone around you is poor(say during the "cultural revolution"). However, its hard to see others getting filthy rich(even if you are relatively better off). Just like the "havenots" during the dotcom boom.
Japan's devaluing and causing concern--but all in all its considered a good thing. Its too sick, and a return to mercantilism and a belt tightening might be its only choice. I could feel the difference in people's attitudes when I was in Japan a couple months ago(yakitori instead of sashimi)! Things seemed just expensive(instead of exorbitant as in yesteryears)....

btw: beware the guy in PRC who offers you _more_ than the official rate in RMB. Its a definite counterfeit! ;-)
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