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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 694.07+0.7%Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (35565)12/18/2001 12:03:27 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) of 69674
 
08:59 ET Scientific-Atlanta (SFA) 23.13: CIBC World Mkts cutting DecQ est to $0.19 from $0.22 (consensus $0.22) to reflect a difficult environment for digital set-tops as a result of continued inventory concerns, difficult pricing environment, and slower net digital adds from cable operators. Firm reduces FY02 rev to $1.6 bln from $1.7 bln and FY03 to $1.7 bln from $1.9 bln.

17:33 ET Electro Scientific (ESIO) 33.69 -0.07: -- Update -- In previous call, said $47-48 mln in revenues was break-even point, but given cost reductions, now says it can be profitable with revenue in low-$40 mln range (i.e. $42-43 mln) and that it thinks it can turn a profit in Q3... Multex consenus sales and EPS estimates for Q3 are currently $49.22 mln and a loss of $0.02 per share... call just concluded.

07:18 ET GlobeSpan (GSPN) 12.60: Morgan Stanley reinitiates coverage with a STRONG BUY rating and $35 price target; believes stk offers investors one of the most compelling risk/reward ratios in the wired communications IC sector; expects GSPN to benefit as telcos step up DSL deployments; sees VRTA merger becoming accretive in mid-2003.

07:18 ET GlobeSpan (GSPN) 12.60: Morgan Stanley reinitiates coverage with a STRONG BUY rating and $35 price target; believes stk offers investors one of the most compelling risk/reward ratios in the wired communications IC sector; expects GSPN to benefit as telcos step up DSL deployments; sees VRTA merger becoming accretive in mid-2003.

07:40 ET ESS Tech (ESST) 21.85: Co raises Q4 guidance to $0.26-$0.30 from previous guidance of $0.22-$0.24. Consensus for the qtr was $0.23. ESST attributes upside to strong consumer demand for DVD players.
07:33 ET Lehman on Satellite Radio : Lehman believes that the mkt is underestimating early demand for satellite radio; although dilution and liquidity will continue to be risks, capex requirements were overestimated-- net effect is a boost to valuation and a substantial reduction of funding requirements; firm set price targets of $15 for SIRI and $21 for XMSR.

07:56 ET Solectron (SLR) 14.81: Reports Q1 net of $0.05 a share, in line with consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.31. Sales fell 44.6% to $3.15 bln (consensus $2.985 bln). For Q2 , co sees cash EPS of $0.01-$0.04 (consensus $0.07). "We remain cautious about the near-term direction of the economy and its impact on the end markets we serve."

08:15 ET Lucent Tech (LU) 6.28: Lehman defending LU: rev miss is discouraging but not catastrophic; still believes that co will return to profitability in 2H02, although firm's "sense of how big the company will be when it begins that ascent is modestly diminished." Sees LU shares rising to $12-$15 by the end of 2002.

08:50 ET Siebel Systems (SEBL) 27.20: Banc of America Sec field checks indicate that SEBL's qtr closed strongly and on time on Dec. 15. According to firm, at least one large deal to be booked this qtr closed very early in the qtr or was possibly deferred from the previous qtr. This signals that the current qtr has run ahead of plans.

09:28 ET Optical Test : Morgan Stanley notes a disconnect between optical OEMs, which are reporting double digit sequential revenue declines, and optical test cos, which are reporting flat revenues. Firm says checks indicate no spend-it or lose-it mentality among customers at year-end, earlier than expected plant shutdowns, and continued pricing pressure. Hearing from sources at Morgan Stanley that firm believes EXFO revenues have not hit bottom yet, DIGL might still see margin pressure, and ACTR has lowered the bar enough.

09:42 ET Documentum (DCTM) 19.57 +2.57 (+15.1%): Gaps higher after raising 2002 guidance . Thomas Weisel believes that it is prudent to stay conservative and below the low-end of guidance at this time. Firm raising EPS to ($0.05) from ($0.07) based on higher revs and slightly better operating expense control. While believes 02 guidance above consensus will act as a near-term positive for the stk, would prefer to see DecQ results and a lower valuation before recommending more aggressive purchase.

Updated: 18-Dec-01 11:52 ET Comprehensive coverage on Short Stories, analysis on Story Stocks
Today's In Play
11:52 ET Knight Trading (NITE) 11.53 -0.78 (-6.3%): -- Update -- Stock down on the CEO's retirement; trading floor sources at CIBC are telling us they are reiterating their Buy rating and $15 price target; thinks that there is some risk that retiring CEO will sell stock to finance his campaign for office in NJ, but firm is confident that NITE will earn $0.15 in Q4, (vs $0.09 consensus) and earn $1.00 in FY02 (vs $0.59 consensus).
11:27 ET Pharma Resources (PRX) 31.72 +0.16 (0.5%): Company announces it has received FDA approval of its Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for Lovastatin Tablets 10mg., 20mg. and 40 mg. Pharma's subsidiary Par Pharmaceuticals will begin shipping immediately.
11:25 ET Inhale Thera (INHL) 16.15 -3.32 (-17%): Hearing from trading floors that stock is under pressure in reaction to cautious comments from Pfizer (PFE) about timetable for inhalable insulin product. At this time, we are unable to confirm that PFE made statements along these lines.
11:11 ET NCR Corp (NCR) 37.38 +1.04 (+2.9%): Announces a multimillion-pound contract with British financial services group HBOS, to implement NCR's APTRA Edge self-service software on 200 NCR Personas ATMs. The implementation will be a joint development between NCR and HBOS, and will include NCR software, tools and licenses, architecture and design, professional services, and project management.
11:04 ET Abbott Labs (ABT) 53.78 -0.22 (0.4%): -- Update -- Reports data from a new study that showed that Bacillus anthracis developed lower resistance to doxycycline and to clarithromycin, the active ingredient in Abbott's marketed product, Biaxin, than to the other antimicrobial agents in this study. In contrast, Bacillus anthracis, was more likely to become resistant to the three quinolone antibiotics studied following exposure in the test tube. Bacillus anthracis is the bacteria that causes anthrax.
10:59 ET Sonus Networks (SONS) 5.18 +0.63 (+13.9%): Investors applauding the co's entry into China . Before the open, Sonus announced it has established a regional office in Beijing, and has named former Juniper sales executive Michael Li as country director to oversee operations in China.
10:50 ET Optimal Robotics (OPMR) 31.79 +1.64 (+5.4%): Announces that Loblaw Companies Ltd, Canada's largest food retailer, has entered into an agreement to purchase and install U-Scan self-checkout systems in its stores.
10:42 ET O.I. Corporation (OICO) 6.00 +0.30 (+5.2%): Co's CMS Field Products unit has been awarded a contract by Parsons Infrastructure & Technology Group to supply a chemical-agent air-monitoring system for the Newport Chemical Agent Disposal Facility. Parsons is under contract with the Dept of Defense (U.S. Army) to supply chemical-agent monitoring equipment for the NECDF... volume 24K; bid/ask spread $0.19.
10:41 ET Nasdaq Composite : -- Technical -- Faltered after testing resistance in the 2011/2015 area but still holding modest gains. Continued posture above support at 1993 leaves index positioned for another upside foray with nest resistances at 2022/2025 and 2032/2036. Failure at support exposes a secondary barrier between 1985 and 1975.
10:39 ET Imclone Sys (IMCL) 65.77 -2.84 (-4.1%): Investors searching for reasons behind recent weakness in stock. Receiving the most talk is rumor that the FDA will ask for additional data on cancer treatment IMC-C225. However, hearing from one source that this is being blown out of proportion by analysts, as it is standard procedure for the FDA to request info.
10:23 ET General Electric (GE) 39.85 +1.55 (+4.1%): -- Update -- CEO on asbestos issue: co used asbestos in turbines 25 years ago, but never manufactured it; well-insured against any potential claims but does not anticipate that this will be an issue.
10:20 ET RealNetworks (RNWK) 6.17 +0.16 (+2.7%): Raymond James downgrades to MKT PERFORM from Buy. Although firm is maintaining its financial forecast, says its confidence level in it has been lowered; firm concerned that execution of co's transition may take longer that expected.
10:16 ET IntraBiotics (IBPI) 2.01 -0.03 (-1.5%): Reports positive Phase IIa clinical study of its antibiotic, iseganan hydrochloride oral solution. According to IBPI, iseganan safely reduced oral microflora in mechanically ventilated patients. Purpose of the study was to evaluate the potential of iseganan to safely reduce oral bacteria as a potential approach to prevent ventilator-associated pneumonia, which is associated with additional avg hospital charges of over $40,000 and extended hospitalization of 11 days for each patient that experiences VAP.
10:13 ET PeopleSoft (PSFT) 41.91 +2.14 (+5.3%): -- Technical -- Slips a few pennies past the recovery high at 42 set early this month then pauses. Limited pullback thus far is a positive; support at 41.10/40.90 with no damage while 40.55 is intact. Next resistance comes into play in the 43/44 area with a stronger ceiling at 44.78/45.
10:13 ET General Electric (GE) 39.96 +1.66 (+4.3%): -- Update -- CEO sees short cycle pricing continuing to be tough in 02, and mentioned specifically in this context their NBC unit and plastics.
10:06 ET Apollo Group (APOL) 47.68 -0.06 (-0.1%): Reports Q1 net of $0.27 a share, $0.01 better than consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.21. APOL sees Q2 earnings of $0.18 and full yr EPS of $1.10 (consensus estimates $0.18 and $1.10).
10:02 ET Circuit City (CC) 24.81 +1.11 (+4.7%): -- Update -- CSFB upgrades to BUY from Hold following co's earnings report.
09:57 ET Brocade Comms (BRCD) 33.91 -1.12: Announces plans to place $500 million in convertible subordinated notes due 2007 in an offering to qualified institutional buyers.
09:52 ET General Electric (GE) 39.78 +1.48 (+3.9%): -- Update -- CEO believes 2003 should be on balance a good year: GE capital should have a good year, with net income up $1.0-$1.2 bln; power systems net income should be down $500 mln; medical technology should have "tremendous momentum"; aircraft services biz should grow, while gas turbine biz should decline.
09:50 ET NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) 67.28 -0.72 (-1.1%): Early weakness being blamed on Jefferies downgrades of Electronic Arts (ERTS -0.1%). In the comment, Jefferies raised concerns about the ability of Xbox to continue sales momentum at the retail level. However, hearing from at least one trading floor that short-sellers may be latching onto the Jefferies comment as an opportunity to talk down the stk.
09:44 ET Check Point Sftwr (CHKP) 44.53 +1.23 (+2.8%): -- Technical -- On the move in early trade with the rest of the software sector. Now approaching resistance at it 200 day simple (44.8), 200 day exp (45.7) moving averages; four month high at 46.85. Intraday support is at 43.85 with a critical short term floor at 43.12

10:59 ET Sonus Networks (SONS) 5.18 +0.63 (+13.9%): Investors applauding the co's entry into China . Before the open, Sonus announced it has established a regional office in Beijing, and has named former Juniper sales executive Michael Li as country director to oversee operations in China.
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