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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Math Junkie who wrote (15476)12/18/2001 1:47:19 PM
From: geode00  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
I have a hard time seeing the justification for criticizing Bob's recommendation to leave 40% (and later 35%) in the market. Considering the difficulties inherent in market timing, it seems like a prudent thing to have done.

In the last two years, Bob hasn't been particularly prudent so I doubt that was his rationale. I think it's much more likely that he didn't believe his own bearish leanings and he was hedging just in case the market continued higher as it did.

From where I sit, Bob has been right sometimes and wrong sometimes about this market. I think he is easily buffeted and swayed by current conditions and the media just like everyone else.

If he was as sure about future direction as he is in hindsight, why didn't he put money in bonds at the beginning of last year? He had lots of it in cash reserves waiting for opportunities like the QQQs.

He reallocates and he hedges just like everyone else. The difference with Bob is that he spins the past rather than coming clean. The net result is that he looks much more prescient and skillful than his actual results warrant.

I find this very dangerous and I don't know why some people still can't come to grips with this reality in the face of the facts. To say that market timing is difficult instead of saying that it is not possible (even Bob admitted you need a crystal ball to be effective) is refusing to acknowledge reality.

No one is going to sell a working market timing model for $185/year to all comers.
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