Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Anaxagoras who wrote (72)	6/30/1997 11:21:00 AM
From: Q.	of 167

Today's Barrons shows the 4 sentiment surveys are still, like a week ago, higher than they were just before the last two corrections (june 96 and April 97). I figured this by averaging the bullish % for the 4 surveys together: 6/3/96 57% averaged over 4 surveys 3/3/97 61.7% 6/23/97 63.5% today 62% The AAII survey in particular has was either 52% or 54% bullish (depending on whether you use the data they reported to Barrons or the data AAII put up on their site at AOL on Friday, which are strangely not the same). This follows the previous week, which was 59% bullish. That puts AAII at a two-week average level of either 55.5% or 56.5% bullish. The 55% level has been exceeded only 3 times since 1987: the crash of 87, the correction of summer 1986, and 12/24/92 when the market was subsequently flat. I now have a net negative exposure to the stock market. My tax sheltered funds are all in cash, and I've loaded up with so many shorts and puts that my taxable account will move up if the market moves down. I've even bought puts on the Nasdaq100 index, since it fell harder than the S&P 500 in the last 2 corrections, as did the Russell 2000 index of small caps.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next