Ken: We would need to define Mid to Long Term.... I will take a stab at ORCL @ $20 by the end of January....$25 to $30 by Mid 2002. $50 plus in 2 years.
This is all very dependent on the overall Market Conditions.
I am basing the above on the Markets having a good final few days of Dec. and a good Jan 2002. Maybe a very good Jan.
Markets UP, say...roughly...7% from Jan 1st 2002 through Sept 1st 2002...
If the markets are very week, take a min. of 20% off of the above prices If the Markets are Down Strong the first 6 months, all bets are off, but I would expect ORCL to hold up better then most stocks.
I think the economy will recover rather well in the 1st and 2nd quarter's 2002. 1st being the slower of the two.
Maybe better then most are expecting now.
This is assuming nothing to major hits to knock it all down again.
The USA could come out of this whole mess a much Stronger Nation, Internally and Externally. A world that has a New Respect for the USA.
We came out of the Spanish American War, WW1 and WW2 a MUCH Stronger Nation. Could happen again... just to what level???
Unfortunately, bad events could through this off or put it off to a later time.
As always, EVENTS will dictate much, but maybe more so right now.
Being a mostly positive person, I am expecting the Better.
If we do indeed come out of this stronger, better, etc.... the US Markets will rally big time, and ORCL ( you were wondering when I would get back to ORCL ?? : ) ) could rise even better then I have stated above.
As you can see, my crystal ball is about as fuzzy as I believe TA is...BUT, TA is one of the Best tools we have to peer into the future. Not always right, far from it, but one of the better, if not best tools.
Have you ever tried running TA on the Dow, Nas, S&P, or any other market gauge? That could be very interesting!!
IN |
