VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Sully- who wrote (45333)	12/18/2001 7:02:45 PM
From: RR	Read Replies (3) of 65232

I think you are on point. I've not seen anything that tells me to expect the so called recovery until Q3. Like I reported on here the other day, many of the plants I've been in the past couple of months are planning production to pick up in late Q2. That's their operational considerations as they plan contingencies. V recovery? No. Realistically, who knows what drives this market now anyway. That's why I kid on here a lot about the gurus. They don't know. I could make a bear or bull market argument with the best of'em. Flip a coin. I'm more convinced now than ever in my 35 years of being in the market, that influences in this current marketplace are driven by variables that you can't square root. The psychology of the market... could write a book. Different generation. Different times. Lots of intangible variables I think are driving the market at this time. Speculation. Mania. Influence of govn massive print of money. Baby boomers. Arrogance of wealth. Greed. I mean look at the valuations.... Consequently, rays of hope are grabbed quickly. The market looks 6-9 months ahead "they" say. OK. Have seen that happen before. I could argue some justification for the recent Naz recovery on that point alone. But, I don't think it will be sustained. I don't want to play the game of forecasting timetables. I'm more interested in playing the swings. The closest I'd come would be to say we may up some more for 6 weeks, then down to the various technical support levels thereafter for Q1. RR

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