RRick, still majority of Japanese goods mfred over there
read something like 65-70% cars
maybe 75-85% for stereo components and televisions
Toyota, Nissan, Sony, Sanyo, Mitsubishi
Honda has lowest %age
I believe the part overlooked here is the competing Asians
as Japan devalues, so will Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, etc
all the Tigers, in other words
the issue may not be so much what is made in Japan anymore
rather, what is made in entire PacRim
answer: plenty
I recall the Asian meltown in 1997-98
30-35% of all import components and supplies came from Asia
hasnt changed much
the initial effect was what Barton Biggs called
"supply costs coming down, hitting the sweet spot on US economy"
the next effect was a hit to US pricing and profitability
Mauldin of Millenium Wave seems to think this Asian Factor will be significant
for that reason, he expects recovery in Q3, not Q2
he has gotten things right alllll year lonnnng
in June-July of 2000, due to inverted yield curve, he said
"recession in full force in 12 months (2001)"
the biggest change in my own digging and homeworking is finding 2-3 people to listen to
John Mauldin is one of them
Stephen Leeb of Personal Finance is another
Leeb expects "all cylinders to fire sometime in Q2 next year"
he is impressed by the huge stimulus in several areas
he sold all techs in Feb-March 2000
then hunkered down into energy stocks afterwards
we will see
the one thing the world hasnt ever seen is a climax implosion
Japan's economy is the 2nd largest on earth
fully agree that in last 20 yrs we have insulated ourselves from the anomaly and idiocy of Japan
/ jim |
