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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Math Junkie who wrote (14749)12/20/2001 3:36:45 AM
From: Steve Lee  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
I haven't really looked into where TXN would be a good buy. With a forward PE of around 700 based on year ending Dec 2002, and the break on the chart this week, I am looking to make some profit short.

I think this company may never recover to its glory days. Think Xerox, Polaroid etc. Pioneers in many areas but now grown up with too many competitors and too big to grow fast.

The state of the semi market doesn't help. With fabs running at low capacity, DRAM makers looking to diversify (TXN's strategy that delivered its recent successes) and the likes of INTC expanding into TXN's once almost monopolistic markets, the writing is on the wall even when the recovery comes.

Maybe at 1X sales (a stock price of $6) it will be a buy, but I expect sales to continue to decline at TXN, even after the industry as a whole has picked up.

As Max says, a quick drop to $21 is likely, hence my covering target of $22. When that is reached, I will reassess. Maybe take most of the profits and look for a smaller short to the single digits.

O/T I see u r into flying and sailing. What do you fly/sail?

I am heavily into windsurfing for the last 17 yrs and more recently kitesurfing. I did a bit of paragliding then took a few fixed wing flying lessons and then went to helicopters. My instructor died in a crash last year when I was just over half way to a licence and I haven't flown since. Looking to get that licence tho as I miss the flying.
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