Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (56484)	12/20/2001 9:13:09 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Good Morning Bill, I think you've hit the nail on the head. It is easy to get too involved in these "prewarning announcements" - lets face it,this quarter will not be unlike any of the past when those with reduced earnings get taken out to the woodshed. Heck that's what makes news and it gonna happen. Poor quarterly earnings surprises aside,we're seeing the dow sneak back up to its 200 day moving average,as the naz settles back -after not only reaching its 200 but ripping up over it. I think this market is accomplishing a strong technical position. It's no secret that the economic turn will be slow and not 1999 in 2002. That's not to say that emerging technologies won't be hot and there will be a list of new stars(gnss).As these new hiflyers give us role models to dream about,a nice general building of strength (read that to be consolidations that are boring and long) should give us stability with surprise rather than BK with despair. A nice long bottom,that builds technical strength will heal this market very well. We are coming off a great bubble - but it is also time to realize that the pop occurred almost 2 years ago. Much destruction of wealth has occurred since then. It is also reasonable to assume that strong companies have been doing good work in the R&D area.This will result in new products and good things that must be incorporated into efficient companies of the future. That doesn't rewrite the future.It doesn't introduce "A New World". But it is realistic for us to say - that as long as the 200 day moving average is being approached or surpassed,with earnings being tough for some,the OVERALL MARKET IS LOOKING OVER THE TROUGH. That's not to say we shouldn't watch out for the cliff just before us. PHeew feelling better now.<vbg> Bob

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